ISIS preparing to intensify attacks in disputed areas of Iraq

According to KurdPress, Al-Majla magazine reported that ISIS plans to increase its attacks in Iraq in the coming months and create an atmosphere of insecurity and fear after the withdrawal of US-led international coalition forces at the end of September. According to the report, the group's attacks have increased in recent weeks and have mainly targeted areas disputed between the federal government of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region; areas where weak security coordination and political differences have provided a suitable environment for ISIS cells to reactivate.The magazine, citing its sources, reported that ISIS plans to significantly increase attacks in Iraq, and wrote that the recent series of attacks, both in terms of number and type of operations, indicates an intensification of the group's activities after a period of decline in its attacks over the past two years.

The first of these attacks occurred in the city of Pardi, located on the Erbil-Kirkuk route. According to the magazine, this was ISIS's first attempt to infiltrate an urban center and carry out a suicide attack in recent years. Iraqi counterterrorism forces were able to neutralize two attackers before they could carry out the operation. One of the attackers was wearing an explosive vest and intended to detonate it in the crowd. During the operation, Iraqi security forces also mistakenly targeted and killed two civilians as ISIS elements.Less than a week later, an Iraqi Federal Police regiment near Hawija in Kirkuk province was targeted in a concentrated attack in which the attackers used machine guns and sniper weapons. The next day, an Iraqi army brigadier general and a soldier were killed by a roadside bomb near Kirkuk. At the same time, a group of attackers threw grenades at a security patrol south of the city. A day later, the 61st Brigade of the Popular Mobilization Forces came under heavy attack near the village of Barghliyyah in Hawija district.

The attacks have increased the anxiety of residents of the targeted areas, the magazine wrote. According to local sources, the possibility of increased insecurity in the coming weeks and months has become one of the main concerns of the people, despite the reassurances of government and security officials.In this report, parts of northern Diyala province and the provinces of Kirkuk and Nineveh are described as “fragile areas”; areas where a significant part of them are within the framework of political and administrative disputes between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region.

According to the magazine, the international coalition has not been able to create a political agreement between Baghdad and Erbil over the past years that would form the basis for effective security cooperation in these areas. Despite their formation, the joint brigades of the Iraqi army and the Peshmerga forces have not yet reached a level of readiness and efficiency that would allow them to exercise direct and effective control over the vast areas between the positions of the two forces. This security vacuum has given ISIS cells the opportunity to reorganize in these areas and continue their activities.

Ethnic, religious and sectarian diversity are also other factors that have contributed to the vulnerability of these areas.According to the assessment presented in the report, social divisions have become a tool in political competition over the past years and have increased distrust between local communities. ISIS and other extremist groups have also taken advantage of these divisions, including sectarian differences in Diyala and Ninawa and ethnic tensions between Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen in Kirkuk, to strengthen their position.

The proximity of these areas to the borders of Iran and Syria has also added to the complexity of the security situation. The magazine claimed that the geographical location of these areas has increased the possibility of intervention by foreign actors in the past, and extremist groups have also repeatedly tried to cross the Syrian border and take advantage of its developments.

In response to the increasing threats from ISIS, Iraqi authorities have increased their efforts to strengthen security coordination.A Peshmerga source told Al-Majla that senior political officials have ordered the Peshmerga, the Iraqi army and security institutions to put aside political differences and work together to strengthen security in the disputed areas.

Iraqi security analyst Walid Al-Jalili also considered resolving the issue of the disputed areas essential for the country’s national security, saying that disputes over these areas have remained unresolved for years due to regional interference and making the implementation of Article 140 of the constitution conditional on political agreements.

Walid Al-Jalili stressed that this issue cannot be postponed any longer, as the situation in the disputed areas directly affects Iraq’s national security and social cohesion.He also saw the withdrawal of US troops as an opportunity to increase the accountability of the Iraqi government, saying that instead of accusing the US of abandoning Iraq, Iraqi officials should take charge of the country’s security while maintaining close cooperation with Washington.

According to Walid al-Jalili, even without a field presence, the US can help the Iraqi government by providing logistical support, satellite surveillance of high-risk areas, providing security technologies and training for forces.

The security analyst warned that continued political divisions and foreign interference leave Iraq vulnerable to the return of extremist groups. According to the magazine, the increase in ISIS attacks has once again highlighted the need for security coordination between Baghdad and Erbil and resolving disputes over disputed areas.