Israel's Wounded Wolf and the Shadow of War over Iran  /  Salah al-Din Khedive

Kurd Press - Israel's wounded wolf now faces two fundamental issues: maintaining power and ensuring a lasting place in history on the verge of political retirement that will come to him sooner or later. A politician who is wounded but still able to stand may resort to more risky behaviors to survive and compensate for his failures. Therefore, the possibility that Netanyahu will act more boldly and aggressively than before in the Iran case should be taken seriously.A nationalist and belligerent foreign policy, especially in times of domestic crisis, can be a tool for changing the political agenda, mobilizing public opinion, and escaping domestic pressures.

The election results have made government formation difficult. It seems that neither of the two rival camps has a smooth path to forming a government without attracting the support of the Arab lists, an option that does not seem very likely in the current political situation. Another way is for the two rival camps to reach an agreement and divide the prime minister’s term into two two-year terms.

If such an agreement is reached, Netanyahu may be in a better position to serve as prime minister for the first two years. Donald Trump’s support, combined with the continuation of the war and the prominence of security priorities, could work in his favor and strengthen the argument of defenders of his continued leadership.The third scenario is the continuation of the political deadlock and the holding of new Knesset elections. In this case, Netanyahu would remain in power until a new government is formed and may resort to more military displays and escalation of external confrontation to improve his electoral position.

In all three situations, Netanyahu’s political motivations for using the Iran case could remain intact; although the intensity and direction of these motivations will depend on developments on the ground, security calculations, and domestic constraints. From this perspective, the risk of escalating confrontation with Iran should be pursued more seriously than in the past.

On the other hand, the US midterm elections could also affect this equation. Although the mechanism of US domestic politics is different from that of Israel, Trump’s approach to a critical period in his political life - like Netanyahu’s - may change his calculations regarding Iran.If he feels that there is little time left to achieve his regional goals, he may resort to riskier measures, especially if he believes that a military confrontation could shape his political legacy or cement his place in history.

The main issue is the interaction of the political motives of Washington and Tel Aviv with the military and diplomatic developments in the region.

Overall, what seems worrying is the simultaneity of two trends: a Netanyahu who needs new motivations to maintain power and rebuild his position, and a Trump who may be seeking a major foreign policy achievement at a critical juncture in his political life. The intersection of these two trends could increase the risk of a renewed war against Iran; although whether this risk becomes a reality still depends on calculations and decisions that cannot be considered definitive.But one thing is clear: the outcome of the Israeli election not only did not remove the shadow of war from Iran's head, but it may have increased its likelihood.