Is the confrontation between Turkey and the PKK over?

According to Kurdistan Press, more than a year has passed since the start of the peace process between Turkey and the PKK, and during this time, according to researchers, there has been no armed conflict between the two sides. With the withdrawal of PKK forces from Turkish territory and the evacuation of the group's sanctuaries in northern Iraq, it seems that this process has overcome obstacles that previously seemed insurmountable. But the main question is whether these developments will lead to a real end to the conflict or whether obstacles such as the implementation of the peace law and the issue of democracy will continue to make the way difficult.JINSA has addressed this question in a new report.

According to Ceyran Ocan, a Kurdish affairs researcher at JINSA, the peace process between Turkey and the PKK, which began in October 2024, has continued without armed conflict to this day. Turkish intelligence sources announced on October 8 that the PKK had withdrawn all its forces from Turkish territory and that four of the group’s sanctuaries in northern Iraq had been evacuated. Murat Karaylan, a senior PKK leader, also said that the group’s clandestine units in Istanbul and other cities had been ordered to withdraw.

Ocan sees Ankara’s main motivation above all in regional developments. According to him, Turkish officials see the wars and crises in Gaza, Syria and Iran as a threat to national security and see peace with the Kurds as a way to strengthen the domestic front and prevent exploitation by rivals such as Israel.He adds that the process has also had regional effects, including a reduction in tensions between Kurdish forces and the Damascus government in Syria and the handover of one of Turkey’s bases in the Kurdistan Region to Baghdad.

But not everything is as it seems. A law passed by the Turkish parliament in August allows PKK members to return without prosecution, but its implementation is subject to approval by the National Security Council for complete disarmament, and to date no member has returned. PKK leaders say disarmament and law enforcement must go hand in hand. They also criticize the exclusion of leaders and hundreds of senior members from the scope of the law.

Ocan, a former spokesman for Turkey’s main Kurdish party, reminds us that peace alone does not bring democracy.He points to the censorship of opposition media in Turkey, writing that this has undermined Kurdish leaders’ confidence in the government’s commitment. However, he concludes that both sides consider a return to war unlikely and that a more democratic Turkey is unthinkable without peace.