“A military operation in Afrin is not a remedy for the threat that Turkey perceives from there. It will be only a painkiller treatment,” he said.
“The best course would be to negotiate a deal with the Syrian Kurds, persuade them not to attempt to change the ethnic composition of the region, and establish — preferably in cooperation with the Syrian government — a multi-ethnic, multi-confessional democratic administration within Syria,” Yakis wrote in a column for Arab news.
“This would solve Turkey’s problem with the Syrian Kurds; it will facilitate a solution to Turkey’s problem with its own Kurds; and it may prove a breakthrough in the deadlock in relations between Turkey and Syria,” he concluded.
Meanwhile Aydin Selcen, the former Turkish consul general in Iraqi Kurdistan four years ago and now a columnist for Duvar online news paper, said that the “Syrian Kurds are in need to find a balancing act between the Russian Federation and the US for Afrin perhaps agreeing at the end, given Russia guarantees for a post-IS Syrian constitution, relinquishing its administration back to Damascus – at least on paper,” he said.
“Ankara, saw an opportunity when tensions between Russia and US ran high making a move towards Afrin with a limited enlargement strategy for the Euphrates Shield pocket to further increase pressure on Syrian Kurds and to try full isolation of Afrin,” he told ARA News.
However, the former diplomat says that it seems unlikely that Russia will give a go-ahead to a Turkish move towards Afrin.
“This move for the moment seems to have backfired as Russian Federation and US found a renewed modus vivendi in the background. Without Russia extracting political approval of Damascus and giving the military go-ahead a Turkish move towards Afrin (even if a limited on targeting Tel Rifat and Minnaq military airfield) remains impossible,” Selcen aded.
“At the end of the day, depending on the new presidential race profiling at the horizon and the repercussions of Iraqi Kurdistan Region’s independence referendum, Ankara can change the sequence and use PYD/YPG/YPJ dominated Rojava as a quid pro quo against cessation of hostilities. This deal remains a possibility albeit a very very distant one for the time being,” he concluded.